Round 1 - The Battle is Joined - Turn 1
soviets versus Garni as axis; All options on; Stock scenario, NOT played blind; Soviet password = ^m[cWg^^ Axis password= r2d2
Download Soviet replay of the Axis Turn
Synopsis of the axis turn.
In the replay we see a motorcycle platoon come off the hill to the north heading SE. Presumably we shall see these guys come through the woods to the north of Arikamiai in a couple of turns. The axis get lucky that the 45mmAT opens up at max range to no effect and then again when they blow away on of the guns a minute later.To add insult to injury the remaining gun again fails to fire when presented with a couple of butt shots on ACs falling back. [Note to Scenario Designers: Make the first turn fixed for both sides to allow for players to set opfire settings!] The next part is painful. The PSW231 closes on town and elicits no opfire response thus "discovering" the units on the road into town. Remember that if the mg pltn opens up the AC will not be able to discover the HQ in the hex. However, that is not the way things worked out and the HQ is blown away with one shot. We lose another mg SP to long range shooting from the ACs.
Two other interesting things occur in the turn. First, we see a loaded 6SP truck and a 2SP HQ with leader head into the field at 16,34. A quick review of the OOB and starting positions reveals that it is a pltn of engineers in the trucks, and that they cannot have proceeded any further than that hex. Is this an oversight by the enemy? Secondly, we see a number of juicy overstacked targets, especially in 13,33. A quick scan of our forces shows that the axis have counted carefully and know that we have no weapons systems that can be brought to bear, bugger!
Synopsis of the soviet turn.
In keeping with the overall plan the soviet infantry approaching the town who are out of LOS will break to the wooded hills north of them. The guys who are spotted will set up LOS coverage of the area to the west of town, or dive into town for cover. We will fall back from the front of town out of LOS. A couple of reasons for this - arty (the axis are likely to have dropped some shells into those hexes), range (remember 6,3,2 vs 14,11,7,4? The enemy infantry is only twice as good as ours at range 1, but over three times better at range 2 or more. So, if we are to fight them let's do it in close), and defensive strategy (which works when we cannot be seen). The idea of defensive strategy is to only show our units when it is advantageous to do so. Thus, we hope to build stacks in the town with infantry and AT capability. The AT units will fire only at armour at close range, the infantry will fire only at soft targets at close range. Thus, when our opfire does fire it will fire at only optimal targets at optimal range. Furthermore, if one unit of a stack is revealed the other will provide a bit of a surprise should the enemy Disrupt the spotted one and then try to overrun the stack.
The forward mg pltn will take a shot at the HQ+engineers in 13,33. We have to figure that we will lose the mg pltn which is worth 3x3VPs. From an analytic point of view, the mot HQ pltn is worth 12VPs per SP, and the truck mounted engineers 6VPs per SP. Our expected casualty count against the HQ is .6 and against the engineers 1.95. Thus, from a purely mathematical point of view we are sacrificing 9VPs for 7.2VPs if we attack the HQ and 12VPs if we attack the engineers. Given that the mg pltn is likely to go the way of the dodo anyhow it seems worth the sacrifice. Now to decide which one to go after. From a VP standpoint the obvious answer are the engineers, however, what would the impact be of getting lucky and destroying the HQ? It turns out that the axis have plenty of HQs in the chain and as we cannot know which HQ this one is it is a tough call to bet that it is the tank HQ which would hurt more if his tank forces were split.. All in all we shall go for the engineers (which could hurt our AFVs if/when they arrive). Fingers crossed. BTW, to the gentle reader who is now thinking - "holy cow" all that for one action! I must emphasize that I selected this particular action for in-depth analysis. This is not a procedure that I do all the time, though the general principles become ingrained after a while.
Our recon to the east of the hills of Slabada will set up long range LOS onto the approaches from the west, and try to spot dismounting motorcyclists. The key to their placement is to place them in terrain which makes spotting them difficult and the chance of them being run into by accident remote. I want to place one in full view at maximum range to slow up his advance.
In the north the maximum reach of the m/c troops would have had them ride into view, and at the very minimum change the VP hex. So we assume that they dismounted which gives their maximum reach as hex 27,27. That hex does not allow view onto the approach road from the east, so I can sneak one AC up the road and into hex 31,25 to overwatch that gap in the trees. In fact, I will have enough APs to verify that he has dismounted in 27,27 and retreat back to 31,25. Alternatively I could take a shot at the m/c's for some easy points, or take a shot at the m/c pltn and if I get a D then overrun with the other BA60 and nab all the m/cs. Of course, I do not know for sure that they are even there yet so let's hold off an in-depth analysis until then.
The guys in the east will run west asap until the need to make a N/S decision. The heavy arty will dismount immediately and plot on the road leading into Arikamiai. A couple of reasons for this: it should be a bit of a surprise as at the start of the scenario we have no artillery available, but more importantly the 122mm tractors are so darn slow that they will not reach forward positions until winter and so we will replace them with trucks. Who will give up their comfy trucks? Well, a couple of guys who have some nearby tanks. Engineers are good candidates as they hop off tanks as fast as anyone, but take their time getting out of trucks - must be the stash of easily accessible vodka!
So what actually happened?
Download the Axis replay of the Soviet Turn 1
The glorious mg pltn rushed up and as predicted found the HQ and truck of engineers, they immediately took their shot and scored a 2 loss (the expected loss, which I thought rather good as my dice are notoriously bad - at least in my own mind :-)). As an added bonus the truck retreated. We set up the defence as below:
Opfire settings are denoted by coloured dots: green=soft only, blue=hard only, grey=both. All are set to short.
With this set-up we should be able to inflict some loss and provide some surprises for the assaulting axis. The one thing to point out is the selection of the rifle pltn as the AT unit in the hex NW of the 100VP hex. With a 3Pt leader a 6SP RP is more effective against armour than a 3SP mg pltn (6@4:3= 0.6 vs. 3@5:4= 0.35). Withoutthe leader in the hex the reverse would be true.
After having set up the defence of town we have another choice. The retreat of that truck full of engineers has placed it in LOS of my 76mmIG pltn, who can dismount and take a shot. With 2SPs at 11:1 we have a chance to wipe out the entire engineer pltn which would be a coup. Though the exposed gunners will likely be dogmeat next turn. We have to hope that they will provide a diversion from the main thrust of his assault. Fingers crossed... Booms ring out, and two trucks burst into flames taking their passengers with them. Not even an average result :-(, but a decent job nevertheless.
So, what about trying to retreat those m/c guys on the hills of Slabada and overruning their m/cs? 5@3:7 has a 34% chance of a D and a 41% chance of forcing a morale check that the m/c pltn will fail 30% of the time. Total chance of a shot at the m/cs ~ 42% chance of success in gaining 6 VPS while risking 10VPs. Given my propensity for poor dice I think that we will pass this one, though a gambling man would likely take a shot!
One final thought occurred while playing the turn - let's send some BA-20s around the northern roads and keep the bad guys honest, or if they are not guarding the approaches perhaps take advantage of appearing unannounced!
Arty targeted hexes in front of town that the axis player does not know that we have LOS onto as we moved those LOS guys out of sight of the enemy.
Combat Results Analysis
| LOSSES INFLICTED BY: | Expected | Result | Cumulative Expected | Cumulative Result |
| Axis Direct Fire | 1.98 | 4 | 1.98 | 4 |
| Axis Opfire | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Soviet Direct Fire | 4.16 | 4 | 4.16 | 4 |
| Soviet Opfire | 0.13 | 0 | 0.13 |
0 |
See full graph Download full spreadsheet
VP Status (axis minor loss)
| Beginning of Axis Turn | End of Axis Turn | End of Soviet Turn | |
| Axis Unit Losses |
0 |
0 |
8 |
| Axis Unit VPs |
0 |
0 |
24 |
| Soviet Unit Losses |
0 |
4 |
4 |
| Soviet Unit VPs |
0 |
23 |
23 |
| VP Hexes |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Total VPs |
0 |
23 |
-1 |