Round 1 - The Battle is Joined - Turn 2
soviets versus Garni as axis; All options on; Stock scenario, NOT played blind; Soviet password = ^m[cWg^^ Axis password= r2d2
Download the Soviet replay of the Axis Turn2
Synopsis of the axis turn.
Watching this replay highlights a number of areas of interest. We shall focus on three: which units to lead an assault with, assaulting, moving soft transport in proximity to the enemy. and overstacking.
In these early war scenarios when you know that the anti-armour capabilities of the enemy is limited it is usually best to lead with your strongest armoured elements. In this case that would be the PzIIIG, and sure enough that is what the axis lead into town with. Rather than continuing with the advance the next PzIIIG takes a shot at the IG to the south, and then the PSW 231 follows into town. This is certainly a weaker move than using the PzIIIG as the PSW 231 frontal armour is only 3. If my opfire had taken a shot then it would have had a 50/50 chance of stopping the AC cold. However, there is no opfire and the AC opens up on the 45mmAT that revealed itself earlier. Why not simply overrun the AT gun? The reason is that the enemy cannot be sure that there are no unrevealed units in the same hex. Having eliminated the AT gun with its next shot it can try and move into that hex thereby reveling the other unit in the hex, which is then reduced in the next shot. The next exploration is again with an AC, but unfortunately does not elicit an opfire response.
After a couple more successful shots against the defenders the axis make a move which is repeated ten times in the next phase. He moves loaded soft targets adjacent to Soviet troops with opfire available. The way opfire works is that there is a probability that the expenditure of APs by a unit that is a potential target that is within the set range will set-off opfire. The chance is 1/(1+range). Thus, moving adjacent to a unit (range=1) that can opfire generates a 50% chance that opfire will go off. Given that my infantry has atkstr=6 their expected success against trucks and motorcycles is over 4 SPs killed! Remember also that most AP expenditures generate the opfire test including: moving, firing and dismounting. Further note that assaulting does not provide for an opfire opportunity and thus is a good way to infiltrate the enemy line and find out what is in previously out of LOS.
Had only the expected number of opfires been generated and garnered the expect result we would have destroyed 20SPs of infantry and transport. At 4pts per SP that would have been 80VPs and the game would be decided. Of course, after the first one went off the enemy may have thought better off the tactic :-) Luckily for the axis not one of these opfire opportunities resulted in a shot against a loaded transport and he was able to get a company of infantry infiltrated into the town. In general it is better to unload soft transport out of LOS of the enemy unless you are positive about the enemy's opfire potential. Also, note that just because your first unit does not elicit opfire the next one will not, you may simply have benefited from the 50/50 chance.
The next thing to look at is over stacking (placing more that 12SPs in a single hex). This is a poor tactic for a number of reasons: It limits the use of roads (if the SP of the moving unit takes the total SP of the road hex above 12 then the moving unit does not get the benefit of road movement), it limits retreat routes (as you can never have more than 24 SPs or 6 units in the same hex), and finally it increases the SP of enemy units that target a unit in the hex or the hex itself in the case of artillery. The math of this increase is atkstr*(SP in hex-12)/12. Hopefully that will come into play when our artillery fires.
All in all, not such a great turn for the good guys.
Synopsis of the soviet turn.
Our choice of target hexes for our artillery is fortuitous as the enemy has badly over stacked (18SPs in one hex) as discussed above. This means that our 4SP 122s are firing as if they had 6SPs! As it happens our results are just under par for the course, but good enough - to be expected with my die rolling skill :-) A major downside is that not one of our disrupted guys recovered. That will put the damper on our defence of Arikamiai.
Our overall plan remains in effect, though the success of the axis in Arikamiai has put a bit of a damper on the hope that there will be anyone left by the time that the cavalry arrive.
What opportunities have the axis left us? One glaring one is the m/c pltn with leader on the Slabada hill 100VP hex. We can scout out the hex behind it to see if the enemy has left a retreat route with a platoon of T40 tankettes. If he has we can run away, if not then all we need is a D result before overrunning the hex and capturing the whole lot. Now the BA-20 has only a 3 atk str, but the pltns are 5 strong, plus the BA-20 has a secret weapon - it can fire three times per turn! Each shot has a 33% chance of success, thus the chance of not succeeding with only the one adjacent BA-20 is about 20% and we have two to play with. Seems worth the risk to capture that m/c platoon, their transport and the 3pt leader.
How about Arikamiai? The temptation is to throw caution to the wind and counterattack as much as possible. However, if we do counterattack it is likely that we will lose everyone next turn. The other option is simply fall back as best we can to the woods north and south of town where we can survive at least one more turn as he cannot reach all of those hexes to overrun our remaining guys. I favour the latter tactic as it fits in with the overall strategy better. However, the enemy has left the opportunity to attack the lead six units of his assault. If they were to be disrupted and retreated then at the very least the lead two could be captured, perhaps more depending upon where the others retreat to. I decide upon a compromise. I will begin a counter-assault, but as soon as it becomes clear that I cannot surround and capture the lead platoons everyone able to will run to the woods. Hopefully, the assault will succeed all the way or fail early (and I can run away!)
Red Arrows indicate line of attack, in the order given by the red numbers. Blue arrows indicate paths of retreat should the attack be broken off prematurely.
We will continue to move north through the hills and woods SW of Arikamiai, hopefully coming upon some parked transport or that HQ unit that parked itself on the hill earlier.
So what actually happened?
Download the end of Soviet Turn2
Download the Axis replay of the Soviet Turn2
The T40 found the the hex behind the m/c pltn on the Slabada hill was empty, and two shots later the m/c pltn was disrupted (remember that 0 assault str units always retreat when assaulted). The tankettes and a BA-20 finished the job and captured the stack.
We open up on the infantry at the base of the triangle with the mg pltn, remember that he can run away if things go bad. One thing to bear in mind is to the ability to initiate double time after firing. That way the mg pltns can fire twice and then move! The first result is a D. The second result is a retreat, unfortunately back towards his own lines. So far so good, though now we have to commit a unit forwards, though even he will not be stranded if things go south as the overrun will use only 53 APs, so he can double time two hexes back on the paved road. The overrun is a success and the invader retreats onto the infantry at the tip of the triangle. This is good news as that hex is now over stacked and if/when I attack it I will have the combat bonus discussed in relation to the artillery strike earlier. Next we commit the attack by moving the surviving AT gun forward for a butt-shot (actually a side shot) on one of the PzIIIs supporting the other side of the offensive triangle. A quick note regarding what other opportunities we have to attack those tanks, as we will need both of them out of that hex to overrun the tip. We are lucky to have two very powerful leaders (a 3 and a 4) nearby, which make pretty much any of our units AT units against a max defstr of 5. Remember, we are trying only to disrupt the enemy, not reduce him. In fact, reducing him is counterproductive as it will reduce our combat strength if he becomes over stacked. Even 6SPs of rifle pltn at 5:5 have a 2/3rds chance of a D.
The AT gun now moves into position and fires - boom! miss!!! Should those buggers survive this battle it is the penal battalion for them. The infantry with the 3 value leader open up - and score a hit/retreat. The retreat is back towards their own lines, so those guys will survive. Just one other tank pltn to clear and then we can focus on the tip. The successful leader and his platoon attack the other tank pltn and are repulsed without causing a scratch. We have several options left but I decide to commit the 4 value leader with that infantry who overran at the start and who have a side shot. It will likely doom them to the axis next turn, but sacrifices have to be made. 6SPs at 5:3 have nearly an 80% chance of success (though we just blew a couple of 66%s). These guys come through and cause a disruption. The subsequent overrun retreats these guys on to the tip! The tip is now surrounded and over stacked. Our remaining guys now fire as if twice as strong (in SPs) trying to disrupt the remaining two infantry pltns. As I noted before more SPs at lower odds gives us a better chance of success as we are looking for disruptions not kills. Sure enough, some four direct fires later the remainder of the stack is disrupted. I have two undisrupted pltns and my 4 value leader left to overrun. Include the leader in the overrun and it will succeed even if all the troops under his command get disrupted during the assault. If the leader were not present and your troops are disrupted in the assault then the defenders will survive. Sure enough, my assaulters are decimated in the assault but carry it through. We still have six units who have all their APs left. These guys run for the woods as best they can.
The next debate is about the guys in the woods to the south of town with LOS over the approach road. It is possible that they have been targeted by artillery this turn, but I guess that he will be attempting to soften up the guys in town. As soon as he has no targets left in town the guys in the woods will start dodging. Until then we will rearrange them for the best coverage. They were all spotted last turn and so they will remain spotted as the enemy maintained LOS onto them.
The eastern force will charge SW as fast as possible to help relieve Arikamiai. We set the BTs SE of town, hopefully out of range of prying eyes, ready to pounce next turn. The slow guys opposite Slabada will hold out at the eastern end. The T28 frontal armour will come in useful when pushing forward.
Finally, there is that AC coming down the north face of the Slabada hill. He likely has APs left of opfire, so we will could try and draw that opfire out as disadvantageously as possible - first move the BA-20 to draw opfire at range 2, then the guy who will sneak up behind the enemy who will be fired at uphill (90%), then the front guy will move up adjacent and finally if the opfire has still not been drawn the rear guy will move to the direct rear. That will be the most dangerous, hopefully the opfire will have been drawn already. But the cost is likely to be all those BA-20s for a shot at one enemy platoon - not really worth it. Probably better to park them in far away high spots over watching the enemy approaches.
Combat Results Analysis
| LOSSES INFLICTED BY: | Expected | Result | Cumulative Expected | Cumulative Result |
| Axis Direct Fire | 10.7 | 18 | 12.7 | 22 |
| Axis Opfire | 0.58 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 |
| Soviet Direct Fire | 3.12 | 5 | 7.28 | 9 |
| Soviet Opfire | 1.09 | 1 | 1.22 |
1 |
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VP Status (axis minor loss)
| Beginning of Axis Turn | End of Axis Turn | End of Soviet Turn | |
| Axis Unit Losses |
8 |
8 |
57 |
| Axis Unit VPs |
24 |
27 |
164 |
| Soviet Unit Losses |
4 |
23 |
25 |
| Soviet Unit VPs |
23 |
79 |
85 |
| VP Hexes |
0 |
250 |
50 |
| Total VPs |
-1 |
302 |
-29 |