Round 1 - The Battle is Joined - Turn 5
soviets versus Garni as axis; All options on; Stock scenario, NOT played blind; Soviet password = ^m[cWg^^ Axis password= r2d2
Download the Soviet replay of the Axis Turn5
Synopsis of the axis turn.
The axis bombardment appears to be aimed at where he thinks our spotters would have been. Until we start our attack proper we can likely expect more of the same. So let's remember to move our spotters. One nice piece of luck is that he has smoked the LOS blocking hex we set up last turn, so those guys will be protected by his smoke in his turn. One disadvantage of this is that we will not be able to use engineer smoke in this hex in our turn.
A quick aside regarding spotters. It is desirable to set up spotters in locations that the enemy does not have LOS onto and leave them stationary until the enemy comes into view. A unit that expends APs (moves, fires, digs in, etc.) in enemy LOS is automatically spotted. However, a unit that just sits tight is spotted randomly according to the formula:
<Unit Concealment Value:UC#> + SP of unit / 2 + <Terrain Concealment Value:TC#) - (modified range:MR/2 [FRD])
[N.B. in the halving, fractions round down (FRD) for non-vehicular units, up for others; range is modified by the hexside that the unit is being viewed through]
The formula above produces an integer value (Spotting Probability) that is then bounded by 0 and 8 (i.e. if it is lower than 0 it is raised to 0, if it is higher than 8 it is lowered to 8). The system then generates a random number from 0-9 and if that number is greater than or equal to the Spotting Probability the unit is revealed. Thus, there is always a 10% chance that a unit will be spotted, no matter how well concealed, and a 10% chance that it will be missed no matter how obvious it is. It appears that this calculation is supposedly performed once per turn for all units that have LOS onto your spotter. So, to best keep that guy unseen: choose infantry type units with a UC# of 1 rather than vehicles; choose depleted or small pltns (every wondered what ATR pltns are for?); choose concealing terrain (forest, and buildings rather than shallow water). The range will usually not be up to you. If you throw a 2SP mg pltn into a forest then even at range 1 (right next to the spotter) the enemy has only a 1+1+(-3)-0=0 = 10% chance of spotting your guy! Whereas that Division HQ in the open is at least 20% up to a range of 9. The single most common way that a spotter gets revealed is by using opfire! So remember to turn opfire off for all targets when you have an especially good spotter in position. One last point - don't have your spotter dig-in, even if out of LOS. Two reasons - stopping digging-in causes your guy to be revealed (the only case I know of where not expending APs is counted as expending them); and if you succeed in building the emplacement the sandbags are automatically spotted when in LOS and are thus a dead giveaway.
His next move is to bring trucks loaded with infantry past the guys in (12,36) and (11,37) who we know he has seen. This would be suicidal (6@3:1(100%)=1.77 = 7VPs), if only we get off our butts and shoot at the buggers, but our guys can't tear themselves away from their vodka! Cut the rations immediately! Another loaded truck rolls by. We now know that our guys are all comatose! The enemy must be pretty desperate to get those guys into town. A quick review of the reinforcement schedule shows that these guys are a motorised infantry company that entered at hex (0,23) and thus cannot have dismounted in town. In fact, they can only reach the first two road hexes into town. Something to think about in our turn.
One other thing to note in this early part of the turn. Listen carefully and you can hear tanks move right after the reinforcement trucks are moved. I guess this to mean that he received his armoured reinforcements as well. We did not see any tanks move so he presumably has set up a screen against our raiders with some of those AFVs.
Next, the enemy turns his attention to the northern slope of Slabada hill. One of his 3SP PzIIIFs has recovered from disruption and takes two shots aided by what we now know is a 4 leader. How can we tell the difference between PzIIIFs and PzIIIGs? They look pretty much the same. Well, we know he has a leader in the hex and the first shot is at str=10, which implies either a PzIIIG and a leader not in his command, or a PzIIIF and a 4 leader. The next shot, at range 2, is at str=9, which implies a PzIIIG with a 1 leader or a PzIIIF with a 4 leader. Thus, the only consistent read is PzIIIF with a 4 leader. Of course, we also knew from the original set-up that the PzIII company had come north and that the PzIIIG companies had moved south, but this is nice confirmation. It also shows a nice target if only we can get there. Furthermore, that pltn fires twice and then moves. It may move a maximum of two hexes, so its final position is limited. The undisrupted AC fires twice and can thus move two hexes. We also know that the disrupted AC can move only one hex after firing twice and that it moves straight back. The disrupted PzIIIF fires once and then disappears from view. Either it saved APs to fire and moved back one hex, or it moved back two hexes to join its brother platoon. As it is disrupted and has limited offensive capability I would have moved it back two hexes into a hex where it cannot be overrun easily, but that is just my idea. If we play our cards right we will be able to determine for sure in our turn. Thus we can guess that the final layout looks something like:
(note: this is an amalgamated image, the infantry platoon is not visible to us but we saw it move into this hex during the enemy turn)
The enemy probe on the Slabada road does not result in a side shot unfortunately, but does make the enemy think twice. He places a LOS spotter on the tank which likely means that we shall see the Luftwaffe next turn. However, I have some decoy units around that hex which he does not yet know are there. Take note that the empty H/T comes scouting on its own first in order to discover the ambush. According to our agreed upon RoE's this is fine, and it is why I have counted his H/Ts as AFVs.
Note the AC in the north travelling south through our LOS. This direction implies that it will travel into the plain north of the Slabada hill or east towards our rear. We must try and make sure that we spot that guy again next time it moves.
The enemy move in on our riflemen in the swamps to the north of town. He is pitching two m/c pltns and a severely depleted engineer pltn against three full strength rifle pltns. I will get two opfires versus his one direct fire (as he has to move in bad terrain before shooting). Thus I have the advantage, which is born out in the result.
Finally, the enemy take some pot-shots in the south and sets up their defensive line. We can expect each unit to have enough APs for two opfires each.
Synopsis of the soviet turn.
Obviously we need to continue our assault on the northern flank of Slabada and build on the success of last turn before the enemy can reinforce his armour there. We see two more AFV platoons appear on the ridge which make it a twelve on six game. Still good odds for the Russians. They will shoot more often, and have the up hill advantage, but we have better armour, more units and we are attacking! Plus, at the moment we seem to have better infantry support.
(Note: this is a constructed diagram, neither side sees this view: Red dot indicates Disrupted units; Blue dots indicate opfire likely available; Green arrow indicates axis of assault to discover exactly where everything is)
When we assault the disrupted AC we will not trigger opfire thus we will be able to see what is in each of the target hexes by trying to move into them after the assault. We will try to move into the NW hex last, as it is the most likely of the three not to have a unit in it, and then of course, when we try to move into it we shall succeed! Once we know where everything is we can draw opfire as we have before at max range with the best frontal armour, and then send in the rest of the boys cannon blazing.
In the south we will advance the infantry with some smoke cover and bring on our reinforcements ready to punch up the road. The BT's on the road will goad the enemy hoping to bring him out next turn. It will not work, but we may get a disruption. That HT hanging out on its own (the one that grabbed the VP hex is easy meat. We will absorb the anti-personnel opfire and place a rifle pltn in a position to overrun it, then we will use the tanks coming directly west to disrupt it and then capture it. To the SE of town we will run in and take a couple of shots before retreating back to our start positions. This may entice the enemy out, or cause him to stay out of LOS. Either choice is good for us.
The raiders will hide out in bushes for a while and see if something juicy comes along.
So what actually happened?
Download the end of Soviet Turn5
Download the Axis replay of the Soviet Turn5
The best laid plans of mice and men... as Robert Burns once mused. Off goes our BA-20 to overrun the AC and low and behold there is a bugger in the woods to the north of the enemy AC who disrupts our guy at 2:3 - DOH! Needless to say disrupted units cannot overrun. That guy will have to be removed before the turn is out. Luckily our heavy tanks are pretty lethal versus infantry. We leave the BA-20 where he is so that if our next BA-20 pltn draws the rest of the hidden infantry opfire then there is a 50/50 chance that it will target the already disrupted pltn. We move our 5SP BA-20 pltn along the same path and overrun the disrupted enemy, who retreats South. That hex is now safe from our prying eyes move as the enemy AC is in it, so we check out the other two and find the PSW231 as expected, but the hex to the SW has only the leader and the undisrupted PzIIIF pltn. Thus we now know that the other PzIIIF is in the same hex as the disrupted AC that we just overran.
I now make a small error. I decide to drive up the disrupted BA-20 (moving from next to an enemy to another hex next to an enemy - okay even when disrupted) in order to draw the opfire that I know the disrupted PzIIIF has left so that he will swing around and point N thus exposing his side for a shot later. What I should have done is draw the enemy opfire aimed for soft targets and overrun the two disrupted AFV pltns with my SMG pltn. Then they would be pointing away from my lines and I would get both of them with butt shots. The difference is perhaps minor (side armour 3 vs butt armour 2; and a lost step on a BA-20) but that will add-up in the long run.
The situation is now as above, and we expect to simply run up and shoot at the exposed AFVs. After the first heavy tank takes out one of the disrupted PzIIIFs I realise my error from the previous paragraph and decide to overrun the hex with my SMG pltn. Consider, my tanks are 5@6:3(100%) (exp .75) from the side whereas my SMG pltn is 6@9:4(100%) (exp. 1.05) when assaulting, but the kicker is I get to attack both enemy units with one assault (exp. 1.05+1.5=2.5)! As it is I kill 2 of the PzIIIFs and force the AC into the woods, where a T40 tankette later brews it up with another side shot. Everyone else charges up the hill for their one shot and when the dust settles we have reduced the enemy by another couple of tanks, plus the tank pltn with the leader is again disrupted. We send a tankette and an AC pltn around the north end of the action for next turn.
The reason to send the guys whizzing round the back is two-fold: 1) reduce retreat paths, and 2) draw opfire backwards thereby exposing the rears of the enemy to the true assault.
In the south we moved up into the positions shown below, with the intent to launch the operation to re-capture Arikamiai. If the enemy stays in place then the three phases are marked A, B, and C.
Things will likely change before this assault completes, but the general idea remains to capture the town and everyone in it. If we are successful in this then holding the VP hexes on Sladaba becomes irrelevant. However, given the current circumstances I am sending the SE reinforcements North in order to contest the 200VP hex and the 100VP hex in the valley between the Slabada hills and Arikamiai. Furthermore if the contest on the north face of Slabada goes well then we can attack Slabada from both north and south.
Combat Results Analysis
| LOSSES INFLICTED BY: | Expected | Result | Cumulative Expected | Cumulative Result |
| Axis Direct Fire | 7.38 | 5 | 40.38 | 57 |
| Axis Opfire | 2.87 | 2 | 10.0 | 5 |
| Soviet Direct Fire | 7.38 | 9 | 19.48 | 28 |
| Soviet Opfire | 3.47 | 2 | 5.0 |
3 |
See full graph Download full spreadsheet
VP Status (axis minor victory)
| Beginning of Axis Turn | End of Axis Turn | End of Soviet Turn | |
| Axis Unit Losses |
83 |
85 |
108 |
| Axis Unit VPs |
246 |
254 |
321 |
| Soviet Unit Losses |
116 |
121 |
122 |
| Soviet Unit VPs |
363 |
379 |
381 |
| VP Hexes |
600 |
800 |
700 |
| Total VPs |
717 |
925 |
760 |