Round 1 - The Battle is Joined - Turn 7
soviets versus Garni as axis; All options on; Stock scenario, NOT played blind; Soviet password = ^m[cWg^^ Axis password= r2d2
Download the Soviet replay of the Axis Turn7
Synopsis of the axis turn.
The axis turn was again primarily comprised of direct fire action with the intent to break up our formations and cause casualties. It is apparent that all his reinforcements have been directed to Arikamiai and there he intends to make his stand. On the Slabada Hill his southern force is swinging around the eastern end of the hill following my previous right hook. Perhaps those tank companies streaming across the plain to the SE will give him pause. He seems to be sending a large number of empty trucks to the west, perhaps to try and scout out my BA-20 raiders? If so, they will be some easy points for us.
The difference in tactics is beginning to tell (SDC vs direct fire). Fully 60% of the casualties inflicted by the axis forces have been by direct fire, whereas only 37% of those inflicted by soviet forces have been by direct fire. Much of this is due to the fact that the soviet machine is gearing up and counter-attacking.
In the all important smoking hulk category, AFV losses are Soviet = 37; Axis = 57 and 25 HTs. Thus, we are maintaining the upper hand here, even though the loss of those T34s this turn was a stinger.
Synopsis of the soviet turn.
The turn started out with a superb result as the Voyenno Voxdushnye Sily earned their vodka ration. We had targeted the enemy sIG IB 150mm SP howitzers last turn, and lo and behold the Yak turned up and smoked it! Air power is very much a hit or miss affair in CS. Firstly it is not guaranteed to show up at all. Secondly the aircraft that shows up is selected at random from the available list and may not be the most effective against the selected target. Finally, as the aircraft fires only as a 1SP unit its result is widely variable. Consider this attack, the Yak had a 5% chance of destroying 3SPs, a 15% chance of destroying 2SPs, a 20% chance of destroying 1SP and a 60% chance of doing nothing! Thus, air attacks can be devastating, but are usually simply a source of frustration.
Our forces on the northern flank of the Slabada Hill are beginning to feel the toll taken by the enemy's very successful direct fire results, and our poor ability to recover from disruptions. Nearly half our top tier AFVs are disrupted, and our infantry support is weakened and out of assault range for the moment. Thus, we will focus on targets close to our units - that way even the disrupted AFVs will have a say in matters. We will concentrate on only one potential pocket this turn, the one shown below. We will then try and set up a solid line (out of LOS hopefully) and prepare for when our reinforcements arrive from the south. It is a great pity that the turn 5 reinforcements once again failed to show up.
[Green Arrows = friendly movement; Purple Arrows = Assaults; Red Arrows = Direct Fire]
The ordering of the attack on this potential pocket is important - we are trying to herd as many of the enemy units into hex "3" as possible before the final assault. So first we must clear the improved position hex, hopefully herding one or more of the defenders into the hex marked "2". The we will make our move on hex "2" and once again bank on one or more enemy units retreating to hex "3". Then we throw everybody left into the attack on hex "3" which will by now be surrounded with friendly ZOCs.
The plan for Arikamiai is to clear his LOS from the approach paths as best as possible. There is no need to rush this assault as we do not have all of our reinforcements yet. We have nine more platoons of AFVs, including our ace in the hole, KV-1s frontal armour =13. When these guys rumble into town through a wall of smoke the axis engineers will attack at ~1:2 (18/2*80%=6@7.2:13) and his 50mmAT guns will be even worse (14/2*80%=2@5.6:13). As a rule of thumb a 6SP unit firing at you with odds of less than 1:1 give you a better than 50/50 chance of surviving the encounter. This is all for the future however, we have to concentrate on poking out his eyes this turn!
In the far west we will set up a trap for his artillery reinforcements if he brings them on. We have seen all of his reinforcement AFVs drive along the road towards Arikamiai, as well as all his infantry reinforcements (it is now clear why we had to use that rifle company to infiltrate the hill to the south of the road to Arikamiai and establish LOS over the road - that intel has been a deciding factor in this battle so far). He has moved only empty trucks westwards. BA-20s should be afraid of many things, but empty trucks are not among them. It is obvious that he has found our AC hanging out in the bushes near the entry hex, so we will need to move him this turn (otherwise he will bring on the artillery, use one to try to move into our ACs hex to "discover" it, and then dismount the others and blow our guy away).
Shhhh - stakeout
Our BA-20 raiders both have opfire available and set only to soft vehicles. He is likely to try and draw that with trucks, so hopefully we will flame a couple of them. Our infantry have set up a cordon to the south and can view the entry hex, though they are huffing and puffing after sprinting up the road. The worst case scenario would be that he draws the AC opfire, then runs into our infantry, dismounts one artillery troop, blows a hole in the infantry cordon, and then escapes the other two troops. In that case in our turn we will nab the unloaded troop. The best case scenario is that he unloads them all in the entry hex!
So what actually happened?
Download the end of Soviet Turn7
Download the Axis replay of the Soviet Turn7
In the initial phase of this turn we come across a couple of axis units that suffer from "slippery bastard syndrome" (SBS). These guys have the ability to retreat through ZOCs. When trying to execute Surround, Disrupt, Capture (SDC) they screw up the best made plans, and are the primary reason to bring as many guys as possible to the attack party. The only thing that mitigates the impact of units with SBS is that they will, as often as not, retreat directly towards the enemy lines!
[Green Arrow = hoped for retreat path when assaulted; Blue Arrow = alternative retreat path when assaulted; Red Arrows = actual retreat path of unit with SBS under direct fire]
We are hoping to disrupt the target unit and then overrun it, forcing it to retreat to one of two hexes (the hex to the SW is in the ZOC of a scout car. However, the unit suffers from SBS and retreats under direct fire along the path indicated until it is, at last, disrupted. It then is overrun and captured. SBS does not apply to retreats from assaults. SBS, however, does seem to last the entire turn. If a unit has SBS it will continue retreating through ZOCs until it is destroyed.
It turned out that both forward enemy infantry platoons had SBS, but we were lucky enough to disrupt the westerly one on the third direct fire attempt. The easterly one took eight shots before it succumbed! Furthermore, the two enemy platoons in the improved position hex both retreated to safety (we only had a 50/50 chance that one of them would retreat into the net, so no worries). Thus we ended up only capturing two of the axis platoons. However, we did clear his LOS from the north side of the hill.
Toward the end of the phase on Slabada Hill I have a chance to take a couple of shots at the disrupted PzIII in the diagram below. I have a T-28, a T-26 and a couple of BA-20s available for direct fire missions. The BA-20s would only be useful if I manage to give them a butt shot. Of course, the T-26 would be pretty pleased too! So why move the BA-20 N one hex before moving the T-28 up to take the first shot?
[Green Arrows = Friendly unit movement; Red Arrows = Direct Fire attack; Brown Arrows = potential retreat paths]
The reason is that the only hex that the PzIII could retreat to that would give my other guys a butt shot is the one to the NW of its hex, but that hex is in the ZOC of the BA-20, and thus the PzIII, if retreated, will not retreat into that hex. However, if we move the BA-20 N one hex it no longer exerts a ZOC into the hex in question and now we have a 25% chance that the PzIII will retreat into a hex that provides the rest of our guys with a butt shot. As it turns out the PzIII retreats straight back and out of view - DOH!
Later, on the east side of Arikimiai another opportunity for the same tactic arises. Our first shot at the mg platoon with LOS of the SE approach road results in its disruption. This provides an opportunity to look at one hex of the enemy defence and capture that mg platoon.
[Green Arrows = Friendly movement; Purple Arrows = Assaults; Yellow Arrows = friendly scouting moves; Brown Arrow = possible enemy retreat paths, Numbers = the ordering of the moves]
First the disrupted engineer that is projecting its ZOC into the hex to the S of the mg platoon backs out of the way so as to allow the mg platoon to retreat into that same hex when it is overrun. Next the BT-7 enters the hex to the NE of the enemy mg platoon and assaults it forcing a retreat. We are hoping that it will retreat into the hex to the S (a 33% chance) and so it does! Try enough of these and one is going to work. We will now be able to pick up that mg platoon cheaply by following the move order in the diagram. One question - why try the scout move last? Because if there are no enemy in that hex then the BT-7 will enter it and potentially trigger opfire that could destroy it and leave the mg platoon with a retreat route. As it is there are three units in that hex: an engineer platoon, a 50mmAT gun platoon, and a leader. Good intel for next turn. It is likely that he has a similar set-up in each hex just inside the town boundary.
Would it be worthwhile to fire at the newly spotted AT gun platoon? No way, we are 4@6:4 which will likely do little damage, and he is probably able to fire 4 times, and surely destroy our BA-7 platoon. In this case living to fight another day is the better part of valour.
Given that we have so much artillery out of supply, and a lot of reinforcements to come, I have decided to put off phase B of the assault in Arikamiai for a couple of turns. We will concentrate on softening up the enemy until we have cleared all LOS onto our axes of approach. There is no rush as yet, with only one third of the game complete.
Combat Results Analysis
| LOSSES INFLICTED BY: | Expected | Result | Cumulative Expected | Cumulative Result |
| Axis Direct Fire | 15.62 | 18 | 73.8 | 102 |
| Axis Opfire | 0 | 0 | 11.46 | 6 |
| Soviet Direct Fire | 14.53 | 15 | 73.2 | 80 |
| Soviet Opfire | 0 | 0 | 6.0 |
4 |
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VP Status (draw)
| Beginning of Axis Turn | End of Axis Turn | End of Soviet Turn | |
| Axis Unit Losses |
216 |
216 |
255 |
| Axis Unit VPs |
635 |
635 |
736 |
| Soviet Unit Losses |
152 |
171 |
171 |
|
Soviet Unit VPs |
479 |
549 |
549 |
|
VP Hexes |
700 |
700 |
600 |
|
Total VPs |
544 |
602 |
413 |